The Delivery Delays Report: Where shoppers are at risk of late deliveries

The final three months of the year are one of the busiest shopping seasons worldwide, known to retailers as the Golden Quarter. Spanning Black Friday and Cyber Monday through to the busy holiday season, consumer spending typically increases, creating a bumper season for businesses.   

This year, logistics challenges may leave shoppers disappointed, as new data from Esendex reveals a growing gap in the availability of delivery workers across Australia in 2025, threatening to cause delays in meeting seasonal delivery demands. 

This year’s analysis builds on Esendex’s 2024 Delivery Delays Report, refreshing the data to track how vacancy levels have shifted over the past 12 months. The updated 2025 figures reveal that shortages have not eased, and in several regions, the delivery gap has widened. 

A growing delivery crisis behind the Golden Quarter

In 2024, the Golden Quarter period saw global ecommerce sales hit $241 billion, up 8.7% from the year before. Esendex data showed that 77% of consumers rein in their spending up to a month before Black Friday, so they can splurge on sales and discounted items.   

While shoppers are on the hunt for quality deals and last-minute purchases, retailers are reliant on truck drivers and delivery drivers throughout this period, to ensure they can match the sharp rise in demand and keep customers happy. 

Research by AusPost found that last year, online spending saw considerable growth, with Australians spending more than $69 billion. This set a new record and represented a 12% year-on-year jump. Black Friday sales in 2024 also set a new record after they reached $2.2 billion, up 10% from 2023. 

However, consumers agreed one of the top three friction points while shopping online was the delivery timeframe being longer than they’d like, while nearly 8 in 10 say the delivery experience affects their online shopping satisfaction. 

Shoppers’ top delivery preferences:

1. Free shipping
2. Fast delivery 
3. Free and easy returns
4. Secure tracking notifications using a trustworthy app
5. Delivery to a Parcel locker or other out-of-home collection point

Source: AusPost Ecommerce Report 2025

This comes as the International Road Transport Union (IRU) reported that 3.6 million truck driver positions were unfilled across 36 countries, with up to 70% of companies facing severe or very severe difficulties in recruitment. 

As customers demand prompt delivery, clear communication, and a swift turnaround at any time of the year, businesses can struggle to manage expectations when they experience higher order volumes during peak season. 

A growing shortage of delivery drivers can lead to potential bottlenecks in some regions, posing a risk of severe delivery delays that could directly impact customer satisfaction.

To mitigate these risks, businesses should operate with transparency, keeping customers informed even when delays are unavoidable. A strong example comes from our customer Gardenstate, who leveraged SMS to streamline their customer interactions and avoid delays for clients and contractors by allowing customers to communicate directly with the team. 

Gardenstate is just one example of the resounding impact that connecting with customers where they are can have – boosting engagement from their clientele while also improving their operational efficiency. 

The territories most at risk of delivery delays in Australia

To identify which regions are expected to be the most at risk of delivery driver shortages, our team analysed over 96,512 job listings across Australia, the United Kingdom (UK), and Ireland, to pinpoint the countries and cities most at risk of delays this Black Friday and Christmas period. 

We used Indeed data and looked at the number of job vacancies in each region for the most common delivery job titles, including ‘truck drivers’, ‘delivery driver’, ‘logistics coordinator’, ‘picker packer’, and ‘parcel sorter’. We also analysed the current listings for ‘Christmas’ driver’. In total, we analysed the risk of delivery delays in 40 regions in the UK, and 15 in Ireland and Australia. 

The ‘Delivery Delays Report’ highlights a critical challenge for Australian retailers in meeting delivery demands throughout this peak shopping season. 

The popularity of Black Friday sales has grown substantially in Australia, with Black Friday spending now outpacing the Christmas period. With retail turnover growing in all states and territories, this in turn is intensifying delivery demands throughout the golden quarter.

With 3,706 open positions for delivery roles, there are an average of 13 delivery role vacancies per 100,000 people – an uplift of 11% from 2024.

But the delivery landscape in Australia differs greatly, with notable variations in vacancy rates across its regions. 

The Northern Territory, with a vacancy rate of 24.6 per 100,000 residents, is at the highest risk of delivery delays, underscoring potential delivery challenges for residents in more remote or sparsely populated areas. 

The Australian Capital Territory is next, with a slightly lower rate of 13.4 per 100,000 people, then Queensland, with a delivery vacancy rate of 11.5 per 100,000 residents.

New South Wales had the highest number of delivery vacancies with 803 open roles, 300 of which were for delivery driver roles. This represents a 12.7% increase in job roles year-on-year. 

However, as the most populous state and the largest economy among Australian states, New South Wales’ vacancy rate remains comparatively lower at 9.3 per 100,000 residents, indicating that it may be more resilient to delivery challenges than other regions.

Australian regions most at risk of delivery delays, per capita (100,000)

Region	Delivery Vacancies (Total)	Delivery Job Gap (per 100,000)	Delivery Gap % change since 2024
Northern Territory	65	24.6	-29.2%
Australian Capital Territory	65	13.4	25.4%
Queensland	651	11.5	-16.9%
Western Australia	300	9.9	-39.5%
New South Wales	803	9.3	9.7%
South Australia	143	7.5	-7.6%
Tasmania	32	5.5	-57.6%
Victoria	377	5.3	0.4%

Delivery shortages across cities in Australia

While overall delivery vacancies have generally fallen across the states year-on-year, suggesting consumers can expect a more stable Golden Quarter season, city-level pressures have intensified. 

The Gold Coast has emerged as the city most at risk of delivery delays this year, following a vacancy rate of 12.7 per 100,000 people. This is up from 5.5 per 100,000 in 2024, representing a 129.5% increase year-on-year. 

As one of Australia’s fastest-growing large cities, which has seen substantial population growth and booming demand in recent years, the impact of a vacancy spike could be felt more severely as delivery needs outpace available labour and strain local supply chains.

Major cities like Brisbane and Sydney followed close behind, with vacancy gaps of 12.6 and 11.5, respectively, while Perth recorded 11.4.  

Adelaide and Melbourne had the lowest vacancy rates, at just 10.0 and 6.6 per 100,000 residents respectively, due to their large populations.

Notably, every city analysed has seen a surge in delivery gaps year-on-year, highlighting that labour shortages are increasingly becoming a widespread challenge across Australia’s urban centres.

The risk of delivery delays in cities, per capita (100,000)

Region	Delivery Vacancies (Total)	Delivery Job Gap (per 100,000)	Delivery Gap % change since 2024
Gold Coast	82	12.7	129.5%
Brisbane	326	12.6	347.5%
Sydney	602	11.5	360.4%
Perth	250	11.4	273.0%
Adelaide	140	10.0	67.4%
Melbourne	327	6.6	335.1%

Christmas driver vacancies 

As of November this year, there were 100 open ‘Christmas Driver’ roles already available in Australia. As the busy shopping season approaches, the present shortage could quickly become a challenge for Australian businesses looking to meet tight delivery deadlines. 

By not addressing these gaps in the delivery job market, the pressure on the entire delivery network may intensify closer to December, creating a challenge in meeting consumer expectations in the run-up to the holidays. 

How delivery shortages have shifted since 2024

Delivery pressures across Australia have changed significantly in the past year, with some regions seeing dramatic increases in vacancies and delivery gaps. 

While at a state level there have been some improvements, city-level vacancy gaps have surged, putting additional strain on local delivery networks just as demand peaks during the Golden Quarter. 

Regions with the sharpest year-on-year changes

The data reveals Sydney, Brisbane, and Melbourne as the cities experiencing the sharpest increases, with total vacancy gaps up to five times higher than last year.

This follows a surge in total vacancies, which have more than tripled across each city since 2024.

Perth and the Gold Coast are also seeing substantial increases year-on-year, with delivery shortages up by 273% and 129% respectively, highlighting that retailers may face significant challenges in meeting seasonal demand. 

Regions where delivery pressures are rising fastest

Region	Delivery Job Gap (per 100,000)	Vacancies in total (% change since 2024)	Delivery Gap (% change since 2024)
Sydney	602	377.8%	360.4%
Brisbane	326	340.5%	347.5%
Melbourne	327	319.2%	335.1%
Perth	250	257.1%	273.0%
Gold Coast	82	100.0%	129.5%
Adelaide	140	62.8%	67.4%
Australian Capital Territory	65	30.0%	25.4%
New South Wales	803	12.8%	9.7%
Victoria	377	3.9%	0.4%

Top tips for businesses

Jonathan Walsh, General Manager at Esendex Australia, said: 

“Australian retailers broke records last year with online spending hitting a reported $69 billion, and Black Friday sales reaching $2.2 billion. But with online spending up, this success comes with a significant challenge. Our ‘Delivery Delays Report’ reveals that while state-level delivery vacancy rates have generally improved, major cities are experiencing the opposite trend. 

“Urban centres like Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne have experienced vacancy surges of over 300%, revealing that delivery pressures are intensifying where most Australians live and shop. The Gold Coast has seen a 129.5% increase in delivery gaps, and even across New South Wales, which appears relatively stable, businesses are dealing with over 800 unfilled delivery positions.

“As a result, retailers could face sustained pressure throughout the entire Golden Quarter rather than a single peak. Delivery timeframes remain a major consideration for online shoppers, but with businesses competing for drivers in this constrained labour market, meeting those customer expectations becomes extremely challenging.

“The reality is that some delays will be unavoidable this season. But for businesses to navigate this period effectively, they need to stay a step ahead of regional delivery demands, especially as customers increasingly expect fast, often next-day delivery. A proactive strategy, including automated alerts and delivery updates, using SMS and WhatsApp for Business. 

“Allowing businesses to update customers instantly on delivery status, any delays, and estimated arrival times helps to better manage expectations and enhance the customer experience. By keeping customers informed, businesses also reduce pressure on customer service channels.”

Find out more about SMS solutions for the retail industry here.

Methodology

Building on last year’s ‘Delivery Delays Report’, Esendex collected and analysed job vacancy data from Indeed across 40 UK regions, and 15 locations in Ireland and Australia. Using keywords for common delivery roles and seasonal positions, Esendex examined the number of vacancies listed on Indeed, and then calculated the vacancy rate against the total population data to estimate the per capita demand for delivery roles. 

This enabled Esendex to identify the regions where customers may experience greater risks of delays through the peak shopping season, as well as assess year-on-year trends in vacancies. All data is correct as of November 2025.